In today's fast-paced world, the ability to accurately predict not only upcoming trends but also the probability of error in business is an invaluable tool. In recent years statistic forecasting has become an essential aspect of many businesses.

In order to become a professional statistical forecaster, you will need to take classes and pass an exam to receive certification. Then you can work for companies that need your services to accurately calculate business trends and changes. Here are some additional things to consider about statistical forecasting in operations management basics:

1. Get information about business forecasting in operations management and the tools needed to do the job.

2. Learn statistical methods for forecasting so that you can implement them to create accurate calculations.

3. Learn about the capabilities of statistical forecasting software applications.

Action Steps
The best contacts and resources to help you get it done

Find out about business operations management forecasting and the tools you need to do it

In order to predict market trends, it's necessary to know the histories of certain business endeavors so that you can accurately make predictions. Business and managerial operations forecasting requires data mining, or knowledge discovery, which is the ability to analyze information from different resources to forecast positive or negative changes in revenue or other business functions. Statistical forecasters use tools such as enterprise resource planning (ERP) and electronic data exchange (EDI), as well as spreadsheets and other web-based resources.

I recommend: Read the article about what is involved in business forecasting, such as spreadsheets, ERP and EDI at Ecommerce. Read the article about data mining at UCLA Anderson School of Management. Go to TechFAQ to read the article about enterprise resource planning. Use the EDI outsourcing services at Act Data Services, which offers offsite pricing, rapid implementation and logistic solutions.

Learn about the practical uses for statistical forecasting methods and how to apply them

Depending on what business process you are trying to create, statistical forecasting data plays a part in what kind of forecasting method you use. If you want to examine a history of certain business patterns to through time to determine which are successful or not, do a trend analysis. Decomposition analysis involves forecasting how long a trend will last based on the time it takes to saturate a market and then slow down.

I recommend: Learn about the various statistical forecasting methods, such as trend analysis and forecasting error, at Statistical Forecasting. Visit The Trends Research Institute to learn how it's used business forecasting techniques to successful predict trends since 1980. Look at the list of companies using business statistics solutions at Statistica.

Deliver effective and accurate forecasts with statistical forecasting software programs

Statistical forecasting software programs are a great to analyze and process data information so that you can accurately predict upcoming business trends better than ever before.

I recommend: Read the forecasting software survey article at Orms Daily to learn how different statistical forecasting software programs help to make accurate predictions. Buy the statistical forecasting software from Prophix Software. This program is able to measure and analyze data to create histories so that you can calculate any changes in the business marketplace. Purchase the statistical forecasting program from MBAWare. This program will select the best statistical forecasting method based on the data you input.

Tips & Tactics

Helpful advice for making the most of this Guide

• •  Since statistics forecasting software is quite expensive, take the time to do read product reviews and surveys to find the best program for you.

Statistical forecasting in operations management uses a company’s past data to predict future trends and identify areas that can be improved. This type of forecast is referred to as a statistical forecast because mathematical formulas are used to pinpoint patterns while testing the results for mathematical probability.

The first step in this forecasting method is to gather historical data on your company’s internal processes such as purchasing, quality, inventory, flow of goods and storage. These statistics are then used to identify problem areas and develop an improvement plan to increase efficiencies.

The basic steps to statistical forecasting in operations management are:

1. Use software to collect your company’s historical operations data.

2. Analyze the data to develop an operations management forecast.

3. Develop strategies for improvement.

4. Implement changes.

5. Monitor your progress.

Action Steps
The best contacts and resources to help you get it done

Learn the basics of business forecasting

If you are unfamiliar with the fundamental principles of operations management forecasting, there are several excellent sites where you can get a crash course.

I recommend: Forecasting Principles offers a complete forecasting dictionary, a handbook on the Standards and Practices for Forecasting and other practical guides. Statistical Forecasting provides detailed information on the various statistical methods of forecasting.

Ensure management's use of statistical forecasting

Management's support is key when putting management forecasting methods into practice. There are many options for training and educating management.

I recommend: The Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning offers a hands-on workshop in five locations across the nation that features experienced speakers from well known companies who share their knowledge and expertise. The IBF also offers onsite training. Applied Business Forecasting, LLC also offers both online courses and onsite training programs from an applied perspective.

Engage a professional operations management forecasting firm

Data analysis and interpretation can be a daunting process. You may need a professional who is trained in statistical forecasting methods to guide you.

I recommend: The International Institute of Forecasters is a professional organization that can help you locate business forecasting specialists in your area. A list of statistical forecasting firms can be found at ThomasNet.

Install an operations management forecasting software program

There are several excellent software programs that integrate both financial and operations forecasting. There are also web-based programs that offer online statistical forecasting and data analysis.

I recommend: Work.com offers a Guide to Statistical Forecasting Software that contains the latest information on how to manage your business more efficiently with statistical forecasting software. MBAWare offers a variety of forecasting software solutions for businesses that contain advanced forecasting methods.

Tips & Tactics

Helpful advice for making the most of this Guide

• •  In addition to forecasting software, your business also needs a good operations management software program. The right program will help you track all aspects of operations including materials management and work crew scheduling. This type of program is foundational to your business and will work hand-in-hand with your statistical forecasting software.
• •  For short-term forecasting, don't go back more than 60 months, since recent statistical methods carry more more weight than the past.

The ability to accurately predict upcoming trends as well as the probability for business error are invaluable assets in today's fast-paced marketplace. If you are interested in learning statistical methods for forecasting so that you can become a CPF (Certified Professional Forecaster), ACPF (Advanced Certified Professional Forecaster) or a CFP (Certified Financial Planner)there are classes, seminars and even software programs available to help you receive the education and training you need.

Go to workshops to learn about the latest developments in business forecasting techniques so that you can continue your education even after you've become a professional in operations forecasting. Here are some additional things to consider about statistical forecasting in operations management education and training:

1. Take online classes to receive a Certificate in Applied Forecasting.

2. Attend workshops and seminars to learn about statistical forecasting methods and developments in business forecasting.

3. Use software programs and newsletters to help you learn and apply statistical management forecasting methods.

Action Steps
The best contacts and resources to help you get it done

Get certified as a professional forecaster by taking statistical forecasting methods classes

You can become a certified business forecaster by taking classes to learn about the different statistical methods and techniques. There are schools which offer programs in a classroom setting or online so that you can get the training needed to reach your goals.

I recommend: Take classes from John Galt University where you can learn about Product Line Cycle, a statistical forecasting method. You can either receive training from their Chicago facility or they can come to your workplace if more than one employee is taking their classes. CPDF Training offers a full curriculum of forecasting techniques and methods via workshops and online study programs. Penn State World Campus offers an online graduate program in applied statistics for students who want to continue their education.

Go to operations management forecasting seminars and workshops to receive training and tips

If you want to continue your training as well as learn about the latest developments in management forecasting, going to workshops and seminars is a great way to receive information as well as network with statistics forecasting professionals.

I recommend: Go to one of the workshops offered at the Institute of Forecasting Education. They offer two to five day workshops that cover business forecasting and statistical analysis methods. Attend both the pre-conference and conference workshops offered by the Forecasting Summit to learn about the latest developments in business forecasting.

Use statistical forecasting software programs and newsletters to learn to apply statistical methods

There are also software programs that help teach users how to apply and test statistical methods to learn how to improve the accuracy of forecasts. Also, there are many newsletters that you can sign up for that offer operations management forecasting tips and information so that you can always have access to current forecasting techniques and their applications.

I recommend: Use the Forecast Pro statistical forecasting software program from MBA Ware to learn how to apply various statistical methods such as Linear Regression and Adjust R Square to help you calculate statistics. You can also perform comparisons and diagnostics of various methods to learn how they work. Subscribe to the monthly newsletter from Forecast Pro to learn about upcoming trends, as well as tips and techniques in statistical forecasting.

Tips & Tactics

Helpful advice for making the most of this Guide

• •  Network with other business forecasters at workshops and seminars to share best practices of applying various business forecasting techniques and accurately predicting upcoming trends.

Reflecting on market trends and patterns in company history will help in business planning and decision making. The results from data analysis allow for successful statistical forecasting and play a big part in how successful businesses are run. For those interested in implementing the technique, these statistical forecasting in operations management key terms will give you an idea as to what is involved in forecasting. Those who are unfamiliar with the process and want to learn the basics quickly can also benefit from these terms.

Action Steps
The best contacts and resources to help you get it done

Certified Financial Planner (CFP)

Certified Financial Planner (CFP) is a special credential that a financial planner can seek out. The credential increases a financial adviser's career opportunities. Statistical forecasting is a large criterion for obtaining the certification and is a common task for financial planners.

I recommend: The Bureau of Labor Statistics offers information on CFP certification and working as a Certified Financial Planner.

Advanced Certified Financial Planner (ACFP)

An Advanced Certified Financial Planner (ACFP) certification is a higher ranking than a CFP. To be an ACFP, financial advisers must learn about and be tested on their knowledge of forecasting.

I recommend: Advanced Certified Financial Planner information can be found at the Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning. View some of the benefits of the certification at SlideShare.

Data mining

Data mining is a common technique when forecasting. It is the study of information and extraction of information from data.

I recommend: An explanation of data mining can be found at Statistical Forecasting. For definitions and more information, read StatServ.

Electronic data exchange (EDI)

The electronic data exchange (EDI) is a method of electronic transfer of information. This automates the information process and creates a fast smooth workflow for gathering forecasting information.

I recommend: Information on EDI benefits can be found at Sage.

Decomposition analysis

Decomposition analysis is a form of data gathering for analysis and forecasting purposes that bases its results on limited time-based criteria.

I recommend: Learn about decomposition analysis on Professor Hossein Arsham's website.

Moving average analysis

Moving average analysis is a method of forecasting that looks at past trends in order to come up with study results. Results are based on an average of a select time-based group of data.

I recommend: See information on moving average analysis and other forecasting methods at Operations Management / Industrial Engineering.