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Holly Ocasio Rizzo

Guide to Accurate Sales Forecasting

This all-important business plan element doesn't require advanced math

By Holly Ocasio Rizzo, Writer and editor, Holly Ocasio Rizzo

A business owner without a sales forecast is like a ship's captain without a destination: Both operate on whim and reaction. A better approach is a sales forecast set at the beginning of each year and looking as far down the road as is practical. A sales forecast becomes essential to your business plan when you seek a loan or other financing because it predicts how well you expect your company to do. To create a vital sales forecast, you'll need to take this approach:
  1. Analyze your company's current situation — its strengths and weaknesses; competition now and in the future; keys to success; customer demographics; and anticipated changes and opportunities in the market.
  2. Look at past sales figures to predict future years.
  3. Use your sales forecast as a roadmap to your productivity goals. Will you need more marketing, more employees, a price increase? Let your forecast be your guide.

Action Steps
The best contacts and resources to help you get it done


Profile your potential customers

Sources of statistical and anecdotal information can give you a good picture of who will buy your product or services. Such sources can also be used to predict the economic and population growth of your trading area.
I recommend: U.S. Census Bureau examines the makeup of communities now and in the future. Claritas will segment your customers and target growth opportunities.

You can do it yourself

You don't need to be a math genius to create a sales forecast — just a record-keeper who makes well-informed guesses.
I recommend: Pull your information into forecasts and reports with QuickBooks Premier Editions.

Or you can let software lead the way

Give Web-based programs your information, and they'll return forecasts and reports to you.
I recommend: OutlookSoft Corp. provides a scalable platform. NetSuite Inc. specializes in solutions for small and midsize businesses.

Follow up every day

Web-based software that tracks your business daily can give you real-time forecasts and highlight sales tasks needing special attention.
I recommend: Ross Systems Inc.'s iRenaissance was designed especially for process manufacturers. Salesforce.com offers real-time sales force automation.

Tips & Tactics
Helpful advice for making the most of this Guide

  • Your forecast need not be perfect, only reasonable.
  • The most recent past data can be used to predict future sales.
  • To predict sales of a new product, let sales of an existing similar product be your forecasting guide.
  • Project your prices as you make your sales forecast.
  • Also figure the cost of sales — costs of the good sold rather than expenses that come out of profits.

The official source of Accurate Sales Forecasting is the Sales Forecasting page at Business.com

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Recommended Solution Providers

ForecastPro: Sales Forecasting
Forecasting software for professionals in sales, marketing, finance, and manufacturing.

Management CRM: Sales Forecasting
Software package for helping with sales forecasting.

Decision Analyst: Advanced Analytics
Uses simulation models to predict a new product's retail sales.

Best Sites to Learn More

SalesVantage: Forecasting and Budgeting
Articles on forecasting for future sales and budgeting.

Eyes On Sales: Forecasting
Articles on techniques and strategies for sales forecasting.



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