So what's changing? Well, as the U.S. economy has matured and slowed, a lot of laggard countries have taken globalization and open political systems (if not outright democracy) seriously, and their combined growth should be the engines of the global economy in short order. Specifically, according to an influential Goldman Sachs analysis, the future economic giants are Brazil, Russia, India and China, or "BRIC" for short.
Understanding developments in these key countries means tracking a number of relevant sources, as well as keeping tabs on the opportunities they represent for export and new business.
Action Steps
The best contacts and resources to help you get it done
Start with the report that launched it all
Goldman Sachs, the global investment bank, got the BRIC discussion going by suggesting that those four economies in development would add up to do more than the entire "developed" world combined by 2050. Yet few U.S. and European companies are seriously into any of them -- yet.I recommend: Download a PDF copy of the Goldman paper here. The bank has thoughtfully boiled the relevant points down into a flash presentation, and it issued a follow-up report in early 2005.
So what companies matter?
One way to track which companies are driving the BRIC economies is to read up on the investment funds which puport to offer a way to put money into the far-flung geography.I recommend: Some key investment vehicles include, of course, Goldman Sachs, plus Templeton, HSBC, Schroders, DWS, and Allianz Global Investors.
Making an indirect move toward these economies
Goldman's view, at its core, is that China and India will be producers of value-added goods like electronics, while Brazil and Russia will come to dominate raw materials production. Getting involved is a huge step, but there are ways to ride the coming wave.I recommend: Join a major company investing in these regions, likely as a supplier or contractor. Retailers like Wal-Mart will not ignore future foreign growth and will need specific quality goods to sell. Heavy equipment makers like Caterpillar will continue to do well in emerging heavy industries, as will personal care companies like Proctor & Gamble. Or, browse companies in your sector at Selectory.com.
Making the most of cheaper BRIC labor
It could be that your company's best way forward into BRIC-driven growth is through labor capacity.I recommend: This can vary dramatically by geography and sector, but certainly it has been shown that India's technical elite is very good sources of cheap financial and back-office labor. A much-talked about guide to sourcing in the BRIC region is Mark Kobayashi-Hillary's Building a Future with BRICS, due out in April 2007.
Find partners to work with in these key economies
The hunger for ways to connect buyers and sellers, particularly in the developing world, is driving most to the Web. Peruse leads databases for a clearer sense of whether you belong in this arena.I recommend: The U.S. Commerce Department has a pay database of live trade leads calls Globus. The Federation of International Trade Associations runs a leads database. Some other active leads databases include TradeZone, Alibaba, and TradeXPro.
At minimum, get ready to compete with BRIC talent
Part of the big change for the developed world will be the flood of management and techical talent. China alone is graduating tens of thousands of engineers a year.I recommend: A great overview of the challenges ahead can be found at the BBC's web site (click on the box in the text for each of its four parts). A good discussion of U.S.-China trade issues is here; of Brazil-U.S. business relations at the U.S. Department of State; on India, a good starting point is the Indian Embassy; while Russia is detailed by the USInfo site.
Tips & Tactics
Helpful advice for making the most of this Guide
- Part of the investment allure of the BRIC bunch is the enormous geographical size of each, and thus hordes of future consumers. While likely slow in coming, its worthwhile to consider these targets for long-term export planning.
- The BRIC thesis is pretty much a theory -- but with some compelling early evidence, such as India's rise as a talent pool and China's turn as the world's factory floor. Keeping tabs on these big two is likely most of the game for now.
- Do you need to lose sleep over this? Probably not, but a fast-rising China or Brazil is likely to affect the general U.S economy (positively as well as negatively) and could make for big changes in your particular sector of the economy. So yes, pay attention. You could profit handsomely, or get taken to the cleaners.
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