How can I, as a professional and entrepreneur, do my best to foresee consequences/situational changes before making vital decisions?
I believe in being broad-minded and always looking towards the future, but it is not possible to have a "360 degree" perspective of a situation all the time. I would like to learn about methods that can be employed to foresee consequences and situational changes before making a vital decision.
I can tell you, this is something all entrepreneurs face in the beginning. First you should go through the process of writing a formal business plan. Just the process of doing this will force you to do focused research and will help you look at things most people in the same field are not, or take for granted. Also find 3-4 people/companies that you are modeling after. See if they have blogs or education components you can follow or acquire. This will not only speed up the learning curve,and help to mitigate risk, but may open up opportunities to speak or collaborate with them personally. Above all remember that no one can see everything coming around the curve. I think a bigger caution to new entrepreneurs would be to "Don't wait for all the How before you pull the trigger". By the time most people collect all of the "How" the opportunity has passed them by.
There is no absolute crystal ball but muh of this can be put into a managed plan. We typically develop a corporate strategic plan and SWOT analysis. Where possible we also develop a corporate crisis plan as well. The combination can prepare you for most things and market shifts.
I think you would benefit by the Lean Start Up Method. There ia an excellent article in the Harvard Business Review.
It is easy to read and has good ideas
Making decisions is not a fool proof procedure. Being a entrepreneur taking courage and self conviction. Everyone is not capable of being a boss or being their own boss.
First, are you confident enough in your own knowledge and experience to run the business you want to build? Have you enjoyed success in a responsible role in the field you are pursuing for your new business?.
There will always be consequences and changes. I have made some very good decisions and some very bad decisions. You thought process concerning dealing with issues, problems and challenges is what one has to rely on. If you want to be the boss, then be the boss. That is what they pay you the big bucks for.
Experience is the greatest teacher one can have. A problem is an opportunity, a issue is a challenge and changes occurs constantly.
If you are unsure of yourself then don't go into business for yourself. If you still feel you want to own your own business, then work for a firm that you can learn the business from and then go out and do it better. Only someone who can do what it is you want to learn better can teach you.
I strongly suggest that you read "Think and Grow Rich" by Napolean Hill, the unabridged version. This will give you more insight and a road map to follow. It is timeless and motivating. Become a student of the business you want to build. Immerse yourself in the business. You can't learn it from the outside. Find some to grow to be like and set definitive goals and don't stop to you obtain them.
The answers will come from within yourself when you decide to make it all work and develop the relationships with the circle of influence you build.
Sorry if it sounds harsh and blunt. Live the role, walk the walk and talk the talk. Pay your dues like everyone else. You can't avoid it. Confront it head on.
I had great mentors, and so can you, Be worthy, be humble, show strength and confidence with conviction.
John E. Stanojev
President. Registered Financial Consultant
Capital Insurance & Investment Planning, LLC.
Systemic View is a competence that I, as a recent entrepreneur and business man for more than 22 years, have put closed attention to. It is the capacity to integrate unrelated information into one or a few point of views.
Any book from Michael Porter helps to develop a strategic frame of reference and set of mind that put us into a forward mood. I suggest reading him.
Devote time to strategic thinking. Do not get trapped into every day, operative things, that can be delegated, subcontracted or that do not add value to your role. As an entrepreneur, we should be thinking long term, focusing on the 20% of activities that contribute to 80% of value. Our focus should be on being effective, doing the right things. Efficient, doing right things right. Productivity, doing right things right in the less amount of time possible.
Alfred Chandler Jr. said " You can't do today's jobs with yesterday's methods and still be in business tomorrow'. Organization survival depends upon successful transition to organizational change. Every organization must change not only to survive, but also to retain its relevance in a world of intense competition.
To try and answer your question, development of a strong communication strategy that informs and promotes understanding of organizational vision and strategy is a key component of successful transformation. Companies are struggling and that struggle is driven by their inability to anticipate market conditions. Exercising foresight and formulating a company plan could overcome some major short falls. Your going to have to rethink change and reinvent yourself..
It's like someone said earlier, "you can predict change"; but having a strong team to communicate the best course of act is imperative.
1. You are the CEO of "Arthanari Inc.". Therefore, you should have a board of directors or a wisdom group that you can use to help you make better decisions.
This group will also challenge, stretch and coach you regarding how you view the world.
2. Use mind-mapping and decision analysis tools to help narrow the field in terms of your options in making decisions. (Kepner Tregoe, Fishbone diagram, Duncker diagram, etc.)
3. Pay close attention to your emotions and govern the accordingly when making decisions. Don't decide when you are in a highly emotional state. Take the time to clear your head before deciding.
I hope this helps.
I do what you want to do based upon maintaining a keen sense about my marketplace. Today there are so many indicators via social media in combination with also paying attention to the print media, I find it impossible not to be able to see obvious changes in my markets.
I would not get too wrapped up in seeing the future or trying to anticipate every eventuality.
The reality is that no matter how long a person is in a business or how much experience they have there will ALWAYS be unforeseen circumstances.
That said, you can still prepare to deal with change and problems without actually know what the problems will be.
It's important to build an organization that is flexible and can adapt to change. I word of caution thought is that some organizations are too quick to react to changes. There is most definitely a balance, and the truly successful business do an excellent job of reaching when necessary but not reacting to false flags.
I would suggest that the best way to establish this is to have a mix of personalities in executive positions. You obviously need to have the visionary types (who are typically more reactive) and you need to have more "down to earth" type people (generally finance or operations people). You also need these people to get accurate information quickly about what is happening on the front line of the business. They cannot make decisions if they are being told what someone thinks they want to hear or if they get the information too late.
Once this executive team gets information they need to work through it together. This does not mean there will always be a consensus, because there won't be, but all sides need to be heard and the chosen direction needs to be at the very least acceptable to all of these parties.
This approach by no means guarantees success, but if you follow it your chances for success are much higher.
Listen to your customers. Ask future-oriented questions from connections in your industry: what is next? What is missing? What do you see changing? Do directed online searching for "TREND" articles. Subscribe to industry blogs and peruse articles on your interest topics regularly. Crowd source decision background materials. Use survey monkey or such tools to survey folks. Revisit your previous decisions. Keep track of other than anticipated outcomes. Every 2 weeks, journal a lessons learned entry for yourself and review every 6-8 months. Read offerings such as provided by the Pew Research Center on changing demographics or Census Bureau Websites, or Patent and Trademark sites. Follow Industry Professional Meetings. Sponsor a think tank group for recent graduating students, get them to answer the above questions.
Finally, beta-test your ideas/products, employ usability testing with actual customers, built more than one prototype in the initial stages. Don't decide by committee. Decide based on principle and verify outcomes. Be prepared to adapt and change. Keep your time horizons short. The Rate of Change in technologies is outpacing a person's capacity for keeping up with it. So network and join forces with others.
Taking decisions is a part of everyone's life. Decision implies in risks in many levels, and what we could do is to minimize the effects and mitigate those risks. There are some models/methodologis and best practices that could support our decisions and provide information to better decision making.
For your analysis you can simply use a decision matrix to help your decision process, as well as use more recent studies in terms of statup companies (Lean Statup) and so on.
As a leader or an entrepreneur its important to know and be curious what others are doing. The best way to do this is to communicate more with those that have been in the field for a long time, those people have been faced with more challenges and have learned on how to work through the challenges. The leadership books always help, more especially the authors that have worked as leaders and that are entrepreneurs now, and also on linkedin follow leaders and entrepreneurs that are successful and they always have blogs that are related to leadership and on how to be a successful entrepreneur. If you need advice on which books let me know...that will really help when making decisions and how to foresee a problem.
I generally agree with these postings but as a "systems guy" I believe that Peter Senge's Systems Thinking may provide the formalism you are seeking. His information is easy to find but I have a link to a summary if interested - http://www.mutualresponsibility.org/science/what-is-systems-thinking-peter-senge-explains-systems-thinking-approach-and-principles
Well I agree with everyone else foreseeing situational changes is impossible. However part of being an entrepreneur is being willing to fail. Now failure doesn't mean bankruptcy but it does mean being open to know and learn from what you currently don't know. It was means putting yourself in the correct mindset. So if I merely read the newspaper or listened to the news in all honesty I would probably create a subterranean space for myself because there just isn't alot of good news out there. However if I surround myself with good people that have varying experiences then no matter what comes along someone I trust will have valuable input. Make the decision, whatever it is, and if it is the "right" decision than great, if it is the "wrong" decision than you will be must smarter and wiser the next time around. You cannot live your life in fear, you must live it with confidence in yourself.
I have found that having a few solid colleagues or friends in business who bring a different perspective to a problem can help me think through a specific problem. If you know what your thinking style is then you can find someone who is the opposite and encourage them to offer suggestions to make your idea better.
I don't believe that any of us can clearly foresee every consequence for every impending decision to be made but we can bring to bear our years of experience in similar situations. I'm not sure in what industry/profession you are currently engaged but in my profession I actually hire and fire accountants and attorneys. It's tough to gain experience without having any prior experience. I guess the best option would be to speak with several professionals within the field in which you are faced with making a decision. Unless there is one person to whom you would turn I would advise you to seek multiple suggestions and then make your own decision based on the various points of view expressed by those to whom you have consulted. Good luck!
Google Michael Roberto and take a look at his books and lectures. He's collected a lot of good info. His books are pretty affordable from Amazon. You can also go to http://www.thegreatcourses.com/tgc/courses/course_detail.aspx?cid=5932&ai=69119&cm_mmc=youtube-_-brand-_-video-_-5932 and look at his 24 part lecture series. Decision making is hard work, and the best you should expect is to be able to improve the effectiveness of your decision making. No one is right all the time.
You can't foresee consequences and situational changes before making any decision. All you can do is be ready to act when the situation arises. About the best you can do is guess at it, but again just be ready as situations arise.
I would read the book "Lean Startup" for an answer to your question. Philosophically, there is no real way to anticipate or foresee the consequences of choices especially if they involve other humans. But there are ways to sift through and potentially mitigate risk using "The Five Whys" from Lean Startup. Download a copy or look for one at a bookstore.
This article is an interesting read and you'll find it to be both surprising and straightforward. http://www.rock-solid-business-coach.com/better-business-decisions