Julien, thanks for the enjoyable prompt. It is always a great exercise to look out at to the horizon and speculate to what is out there. I will first start with sharing my thoughts on the matter by defining that in the context of my answer, entertainment is not limited to TV and movies. I agree with those who speculate that the digitally created content will become more and more the norm. I also think that technology will continue to permeate into the content delivery systems. Devices such as the Virtual Reality (VR) displays (e.g. Oculus Rift and or Google Glass type displays) will start to find a home in the entertainment market. The use of Augmented Reality (AR) will also continue to grow. These immersive delivery systems will also grow the interactive audience sector of the market. Gaming and movies will continue to converge together and you will be able to choose as an audience member, to whether you want to attend as a passive viewer or an immersed interactive viewer. You will have the options of seeing a predetermined storyline or participate in the crowd-sourced plot. The delivery systems will face challenges of adoption (similar to 3D TV) due to the physical encumbrance that come along with the equipment you need to wear, but in the end, the enhancements to the audience experience will entrench the use of the technology . Man, I am glad I don’t have to attach a budget to this vision of mine! ;-)
There are some very interesting side developments (one in France I think) where NeuroScience is integrated in the film making. The spectator gets a light EEG device recording the audience's emotions. On the basis of these emotions the movie scanario gets adapted on the fly thanks to various scenarii recorded by the film maker.
Everything would be quick, really quick!
Technology will dominate, as the really work done would be done behind the screen and not on the screen!
Dependency on the 3D effects will increase and the era of people like Quentin Tarantino, Chris Nolan will be long gone.
If you see the face of the music industry now you can easily note the difference 5 years back!! Genre like House music, EDM, Trance (to make this music all you need is a laptop and some softwares)are rolling, while rock and metal age is gone where they use to produce music by the use of real instrument and not by a Laptop.
So, 5 years down the line you can imaging all the movies released in 3D only with 2D flushed out of the picture and veteran musician who use instruments to produce sound will be limited to older generation.
Hi Julien-at the end of the day..it's all about money...monetization..and associated revenues an entertainment product can generate (beyond traditional theatre distribution). I think you're seeing excellent examples of the shift in our culture from 'going to the movies' vs staying home and streaming (or finding a bootleg site)..same for TV/cable...platforms like VOD, Hulu+, Netflix, Amazon On Demand and others fill the void now, but it all comes down to CONTENT...which if you look at the metrics that many YouTube content providers are getting, you'll see that no one cares about hit actors, or big names...it's about THE CONTENT..is it funny, is it interesting, does it have value, offer a solution/help videos? What has changed is the number of options available to consumers...with more choices, they have more voices..and they'll choose what's convenient, and interesting first. Before, when we didn't have these choices (traditional TV pre cable) you were forced to accept what was provided. Not anymore...providers that tap into what customers REALLY want, will be successful. Consumers have a choice now...the business models need to reflect this- and be ready for the shift enmasse to streaming asap.
Streaming content on mobile and tablet platforms will take a big leap in the future! Thanks - Chacko
The entertainment world will look alot like it does now...The only things taht are really going to change is the devices to playback the media to be higher res, include 3d and more likely stereoscopic without classes, possible interactivity in the programming. Even though technology is always getting more accessible, the tech push to make even better technology will always be there to keep the curve where it is. What you will see more of though is distribution channels...but that will be dependant on the type of licensing that will happen. A lot more independant works for sure, but things like the Iglass and derivatives will become more prevalent...as well as more useful. The likelihood of the DVD store disappearing is very high...as is the likelihood to paying even cheaper amounts for rentals online to gain repeat watching from viewers...thus increasing revenues. the same will go for music...except for fringe lo-fi which will become highly collectable again.We will also see a lot more convergence with gaming technology and tv\film production.
I think there would be changes in Economies & Technology. The Asian economies will be playing a much bigger role. One might also see infant version of driver-less cars. Many small nations will be broke financially and geo-politically there would be a few more or new nations dominating international politics and some of the old ones may go into oblivion. Increasingly trade will consolidate around economies which offer economies of scale- Production and Consumption. There also would be increased number of Free Trade Agreements which might lead to cartelization of trade and commerce between nations.
I think the television industry will contiue to grow as the demand for content continues to grow una bated more channels will mean more product for the pipeline the key will be the ability to translate product to the small and large scree in reasonable time the film industry will continue the consolidation of the last few years with fewer major players and the ket there will be the distribution avenues
I Think it will be alot of Digital film. Also 3D will be a household name. I Think were seeing that already in 3D movies and TV's. Virtual will come into play as well. With DSLR camera's, production will are already is cheaper.
It will all hinge on distribution of film.
This will be the single most dramatic shift we'll see in the next 5 years.
There is a chasm between what works for hollywood blockbusters and what works for indie films.
Hopefully film makers will start to realize they dont need to rely 100% on distribution companies as long as they allocate a healthy portion of their "budget to make the film" to include P&A... which in this case would go towards online advertising... you have a $2M budget? Then about $1M of that should go towards marketing/advertising.
Then would link directly to an Amazon.com page or i-tunes where the film maker could sell (or rent) her film directly. I know... it doesnt sound glamorous... but its time for new film makers to embrace e-commerce...
because a $1-$10M film is going to have a really tough time using the Hollywood Complex system of distribution. It really has NOTHING to do with how a film maker can get ROI for his film and his investors.
The problem is, they have to surrender the dream of being "released" in a movie theater. It can be done... but selling indie films via e-commerce, eclipses doing it via movieplex.
In the same way there is little to stop a writer from publishing a book online because of Amazon and other giant resources out there. Same with films... But you need a marketing plan.
hopefully Sundance will stop being a beauty pageant just for large distributors to choose from. and we'll start seeing niche solutions that are a better fit for each film.
This really depends of the film makers of course.. what story they tell themselves... who they empower... or dont.