The Cold Weather Effect: Raising Profits When Temperatures Drop

What is the cold weather effect?

The cold weather effect is the tendency for businesses to see higher profits and consumer spending during cold weather. As temperatures drop, consumer habits shift: People stay home more, shop online and spend differently, often boosting overall sales for certain industries.

“The cold weather effect is the phenomenon by which businesses see an increase in profits during periods of cold weather,” explained Max Benz, founder and CEO of BankingGeek. “While the exact cause of this boost is not fully understood, there are several theories that have been put forward to explain it.”

Here are some of the leading explanations for the cold weather effect:

• More time indoors prompts spending: When temperatures fall, people tend to stay home, and that often leads to more online shopping, entertainment purchases and food delivery orders. Research published in MDPI’s Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research found that weather can shape how people do their online shopping. When it’s too cold or dreary to go out, consumers naturally turn to digital channels instead. That shift helps explain why e-commerce and at-home spending often climb during the colder months.
• Low supply triggers higher prices: Another theory suggests that winter weather disrupts supply chain distribution and decreases the availability of goods and services. When supply is limited but demand remains steady, prices rise — and so can business profits.
• People can get used to cold weather: A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that the “sensitivity of retail sales to precipitation, snow and cold weather declines with historical experience.” In other words, shoppers in regions that regularly experience cold weather adapt over time and continue spending even during harsh conditions. Conversely, consumers in warmer regions may cut back when cold weather strikes unexpectedly.
• Online shopping is always open: Snow, sleet and ice can make it hard to reach physical stores, but online shopping never closes. According to Adobe’s 2023 Digital Economy Index, produced in partnership with The Weather Company, adverse weather conditions drove up to a 12 percent increase in online spending during weekend storms as consumers stayed indoors. Adobe also found that moderate rainfall can boost daily online spending by as much as 4.4 percent, showing how colder, wetter weather consistently drives shoppers online.

How does cold weather affect consumer behavior?

Here’s a look at what we know about cold weather’s impact on purchasing behavior.

1. Cold weather makes people want to stay indoors and shop online.

Cold, gray days tend to keep people inside, but that doesn’t mean they stop spending. In fact, time spent at home often becomes prime time for online shopping. Consumers can easily access mobile devices and computers when they’re stuck inside, and online shopping during these periods tends to spike. 

Here are a few reasons why:

• Consumers have more time to browse: When people stay home, they finally have the time to explore online purchases they’ve been considering.
• Online shopping cures boredom: Boredom is a surprisingly powerful motivator. “When the weather is bad, people tend to stay indoors and get bored,” said Harry Turner, founder of The Sovereign Investor. “Boredom is a major trigger for online shopping, so bad weather can lead to an increase in online buying behavior.”

2. Consumers may stock up on specific items for the winter.

An early winter event, such as a snowstorm in October, immediately affects consumers, causing them to think about the upcoming holiday shopping season. [Related article: 13 Marketing Strategies That Will Boost Your Holiday Sales]

Additionally, cold weather prompts purchases of specific necessities. “[Consumers] buy warmer clothes, heat their homes and businesses and purchase items that make them feel comfortable in the colder temperatures,” Turner explained.

Unusually cold weather can also spark panic buying as shoppers rush to prepare for potential shortages and disruptions. According to Straits Research, sales of canned soups and frozen meals can jump by as much as 30 percent in the days before a winter storm, while generator sales have risen by more than 50 percent during major snow events. Heating supplies such as firewood and space heaters often surge around 40 percent, and over-the-counter medication sales can climb up to 20 percent during severe-weather warnings. These spikes show how quickly cold weather can shift consumer priorities toward comfort and preparedness.

How can weather forecasting help retailers adjust?

Helping retailers prepare for short-term weather changes has come a long way. Many businesses now use AI-powered tools that combine weather forecasts with real-time shopper insights to help predict when demand will rise or fall.

For example, IBM’s The Weather Company, one of the world’s most accurate forecasters, says its JEDI data system improved forecast accuracy by up to 15 percent. Technology like this can help businesses better anticipate how cold snaps and storms will affect sales.

Here are a few ways retailers can take advantage of forecasting platforms:

• Send targeted “cold weather” marketing emails: If a retailer knows wintry weather is heading for a specific area, it can send timely email marketing campaigns to its target audience, promoting online specials and discounts and encouraging customers to shop from home.
• Stock up before winter hits: Retailers who expect an early or harsh winter can prepare by stocking both store shelves and online inventories with popular holiday gifts and cold-weather essentials.
• Advertise on forecasting platforms: Weather-triggered advertising has become more precise than ever. Some platforms now adjust digital ad spend automatically based on local conditions. For instance, if a forecast calls for high humidity, the platform can trigger an ad for an anti-frizz hair product or an indoor activity. 

Leading weather intelligence services for businesses include Tomorrow.io, Planalytics, Weather Trends International, and the National Weather Service’s Impact-Based Decision Support Services. Many of these systems also integrate with inventory management and marketing automation tools, helping retailers make smarter, weather-informed decisions year-round.

How does weather, in general, affect purchasing behavior?

All types of weather influence consumer spending in some way, but the effects vary widely depending on the industry and situation.

• Warm weather businesses: Some industries thrive in warm weather, including theme parks, festivals, ice cream shops, outdoor malls and many restaurants and bars. When it’s sunny, people want to be outside to experience the pleasant weather and seek out places that accommodate outdoor fun. However, once the weather starts to change, these businesses see a decline in sales and may even shut down.
• Cold weather businesses: On the flip side, ski resorts and cold-weather retailers peak during the winter and may scale back quite a bit once temperatures rise.

Weather’s impact also goes beyond temperature. A well-known study in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services found that changes in sunlight, humidity and snowfall all play a role in how people shop. The researchers noted that weather can influence mood, and when the weather affects how people feel, it often affects what they buy. In short, when the weather dampens spirits, people may turn to shopping or experiences that lift them up.

5 tips for making your business weatherproof

Creating a weatherproof business strategy is essential for maintaining steady profits year-round. Here are five practical ways to minimize weather-related revenue swings and keep your operations on track:

1. Cut down on expenses: Strategic cost management helps you build financial reserves for slower seasons. Cutting business expenses and planning your budget can create the cushion you need to get through off-peak months. “Every dollar that leaves your account is money that can be used to help you get through the offseason,” cautioned Joshua Rich, president and CEO of Bullseye Locations. “Try to cut down on necessary expenses while removing unnecessary ones.” Rich also advises creating — and sticking to — a budget.
2. Understand buying behavior: Data analytics on your customers’ shopping patterns can reveal how weather affects their purchasing decisions. Even simple data insights can help you stock the right products and time your promotions effectively. “One way that businesses can make their profits more stable all year long, regardless of the weather, is by using data analytics to understand their customers’ buying behavior,” explained Laura Helke, founder of WREI. “This can help businesses to better forecast demand for their products and services and to make changes to their inventory or marketing strategies accordingly.”
3. Offer timeless products: Some products and services are necessary throughout the year. “Focus on selling products that people need regardless of the weather,” suggested Linda Shaffer, chief people operations officer at Checkr. “For example, food and health care products are always in demand.” Shaffer also advised selling timeless products that never go out of style, including classic books and well-made furniture.
4. Implement weather-based marketing: Modern marketing tools make it easier than ever to reach customers with messages that match the moment. Weather-based targeting — such as showing ads or sending emails triggered by local conditions — helps businesses stay relevant when weather changes buying habits. “Companies should make sure they’re using weather-based targeting when advertising online or through other channels,” advised Kate Zhang, founder of Kate Backdrop. “By doing this, companies can ensure they’re reaching their target audience with the right message, regardless of the weather.”
5. Have a robust online presence: Strong e-commerce capabilities are essential for maintaining sales when bad weather limits foot traffic. Even when people can’t get out to stores, they still shop online, especially for essentials or comfort items. “Many consumers now do most of their shopping online, so even if bad weather keeps people from going outside, they may still purchase items from companies online,” Turner noted.